Different Roads Sometimes Lead to the Same Castle
Story by Francisco Camacho, artwork by Mallika Sunder
The titular George R.R. Martin quote is so often applied in our world of politics. The question is often not what we want our world to be, but how we achieve that. This relationship is especially clear with the national debate on reopening schools: everyone agrees they should reopen only when it’s safe, but what is “safe” and are we there yet? Here are the two predominant perspectives.
On July 23rd, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued new guidance on how schools can reopen safely for the 2020-21 school year. In short, the CDC recommends schools reopen now with certain precautions like social distancing and face masks. In greater detail, here are their points.
First, COVID-19 poses a relatively low risk to children. Several studies found that under 18s are between ⅓ and ½ as likely to catch COVID-19 as adults, and those under 10 are 1,000 times less likely to die from the disease than those over 70. Not only that, but they appear to be less likely to spread it. In Sweden, staff at nurseries and schools were no more likely to catch the virus than those at other jobs. Moreover, a study of German teachers and students who returned to school in May found that only .6% had been infected.
Second, missing school is very detrimental to students and works punitively, with the hardest impact falling on those who are already at a disadvantage. Most studies from the past decade suggest online learning is a poor substitute for in-person classes, with a Brookings Institute survey from 2017 finding that, on average, it reduced a college student’s grade from a B- to a C. Opponents may point to a 2010 Department of Education meta-analysis of over a thousand distance learning studies between 1996 and 2008: “Students in online learning conditions performed modestly better than those receiving face-to-face instruction.”
Supporters of reopening also argue it gets worse, with the least fortunate having it the worst. Around 450 million children worldwide cannot easily make use of online classes due to unreliable internet access. In all, the World Bank estimates that five months of school closures would cut lifetime earnings for the children who are affected by $10 trillion, or 7% of worldwide GDP, sending many into poverty and perpetuating the impoverishment of those suffering. Many also argue the mental health effects of reduced socializing or freeing up parents for work validate reopening schools in-of-themselves.
Critics of reopening, however, like to start with context when arguing it isn’t safe yet. The CDC’s new guidance confused many as Director Robert Redfield had seemed mostly against school reopenings--or trepidatious, at the least. As it turns, the White House edited the recent guidelines. Many are rightfully skeptical, given that this White House has lied to the American public on provable facts since Day 1 and been known to leverage agencies for political purposes. I do not say this as a matter of opinion, but a matter of fact.
Moreover, Director Redfield suggested schools should not reopen if they are in a “hotspot” for COVID-19. But when asked for the parameters of a “hotspot” in an interview, his definition would include areas in 33 states. At which point, one might ask, would reopening schools be the norm or the exception under CDC guidelines? And on purely logical grounds, didn’t we close schools in March? And aren’t both active cases and transmission rates higher than they were in March? Yes and yes. And although testing is up by 37% in the US, the rise in cases is 194%, meaning actual cases are rising, not just confirmed cases.
But the main argument for keeping schools closed is to save teachers and parents who are vulnerable to the virus. While it generally seems youths don’t transmit the virus as much, there is some evidence against this, too. At a secondary school in Israel, 150 students and faculty were infected by the virus after an outbreak. Students or their possessions may pick up the virus while at school and return it home to their parents or grandparents, who are more likely to suffer severe symptoms or die from it. These dangers are drastically exacerbated by a national shortage in testing and personal protective equipment.
In all, parents and teachers mostly favor keeping schools closed until the disease can be better controlled while public health officials almost universally favor opening schools on schedule (though they argue that precautions are necessary). With everyone in agreement that schools should only reopen when it’s safe, this debate has one big grey area: when is it safe? The real answer is anyone’s guess. The fact is, the evidence on COVID-19’s dangers with children is inconclusive. As Dr. Anthony Fauci conceded to Sen. Rand Paul, no one knows the best decision, and anyone who says they do is lying: “The only thing that I can do is, to the best of my ability, give you the facts and the evidence associated with what I know about this outbreak… I am very careful, and hopefully humble, in knowing that I don't know everything about this disease, and that's why I'm very reserved in making broad predictions." All any of us can really do is take a modest page from Dr. Fauci’s book.
