Where the 2024 Senate Elections Stand as of January 2023 - Part 2
Article by Lorenzo Levi | Photo by Ernie Journeys
Missouri
Missouri voted for Trump 15.4 points in 2020, the incumbent Senator Josh Hawley is a Republican, and the Republican who ran for Senate in 2022 won by 13.4 points. These three facts would seem to imply that Hawley is safe in his seat, but Hawley is no ordinary Senator. Even for a Senate Republican, Hawley is extremely cozy with the alt-right (see for example his infamous photo of him raising his fist in support of rioters on January 6th). Not only is he extreme, but he is also seen as cowardly after the infamous footage of him running released during the January 6th Committee hearing which caused audible laughter in the room where the hearing took place.
Not only is Hawley an extremely weak candidate, but in the 2016 Senate election in Missouri, the same year Trump was elected president, Democrat Jason Kander only lost to incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt by 2.8 points, whereas Trump won the state on the same ballot by 18.5 points. Roy Blunt was certainly a much less problematic candidate for the Republicans than Josh Hawley; one of the aspects of Jason Kander that made him a good candidate was his military candidate, so it is promising for Democrats that one of their leading candidates for Senate, Lucas Kunce, who has even already announced his candidacy, is a veteran as well.
The Democratic party in recent years has also made it a habit to spend money and resources on longshot campaigns to unseat extreme Republicans who get media attention like Hawley (See for example Brandon Flowers’ campaign against Marjorie Taylor Greene in 2022 or Jaime Harrison’s campaign against Lindsey Graham in 2020). This strategy has not been successful for Democrats and has diverted resources away from races that Democrats could have won if they had a tiny bit more funding. Therefore, especially in a year where Democrats have so many incumbents to defend, there will almost certainly be pressure to focus on the races that Democrats could more likely win.
Montana
Montana voted for Trump by over 16 points in 2020, so it is nothing short of a miracle for Democrats that they managed to re-elect Democrat Senator Jon Tester in 2018 by 3.2 points. Tester is well-liked in his state and has been in the Senate since 2007, so the incumbency advantage will likely be very strong. That being said, Republican incumbent Senator Steve Daines defeated the popular Democratic Governor Steve Bullock for Montana’s Senate seat in 2020 by just over 10 points. It will be interesting to see whether the strength of Tester’s incumbency will be enough to fend off a Republican challenger in a deep-red Republican state once again.
Nevada
Nevada has been a mixed bag for Democrats in the past few elections. Democrats won Nevada by about 2.5 points in both 2016 and 2020 on the presidential level, which defied leftward the trend of the vast majority of states between 2016 and 2020 on the presidential level. 2022 was not a fantastic year for Nevada Democrats, as the incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak lost to Republican Joe Lombardo and incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto barely defeated far-right Republican challenger Adam Laxalt by less than one percentage point. It can be noted, however, that because of Las Vegas' (and therefore Nevada’s) reliance on the service industry, Governor Sisolak’s COVID lockdowns were absolutely disastrous for the state’s economy, albeit necessary for public health concerns. Democrats were able to do better in other statewide elections since those roles did not have as direct of blame for lockdowns. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jackie Rosen won her last election by 5 points in a Democratic wave year, but this margin will likely be smaller in 2024, given that it is not set to be as favorable of an environment to Democrats as 2018. Whether or not this means that Rosen will lose her seat is still an open question.
Ohio
The re-election of incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in 2018 is the Ohio Democratic Party’s most recent statewide victory. Some thought that in 2022, relatively well-known and well-liked Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan would be able to defeat Republican crypto-celebrity J.D. Vance, but they were wrong. Ryan lost by 6.6 points. Brown won by 6.8 points in 2018, a Democratic wave year, a margin that will almost certainly be smaller in 2024, if he ends up winning. In order to win, Brown would have to tap into the organized labor vote even more than Ryan did in 2022 and would have to have a significant incumbency and name-recognition advantage.
Sources:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/01/18/senate-republicans-2024-races-candidates/
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/20/early-action-2024-senate-battle-00078606
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/09/2022-election-results-analysis-and-takeaways-00065878
